Boeing downgrades global aircraft industry outlook, sees demand for 41,170 new planes in 20 years

IT House July 17 news, on July 16 local time, Boeing released its market outlook for the next 20 years before the Farnborough Airshow.

Boeing expects global airlines will have demand for 41,170 new planes over 20 years, with about half of those delivered to replace existing models, which the industry sees as underscoring the industry’s resilience after two years of the pandemic .

Of course, this figure is significantly lower than the previous forecast of 43,610 aircraft, and Boeing said that aircraft deliveries will remain stable except for the Russian market. That said, the 1,540-plane forecast for the Russian market is not included in the new forecast, as they are also unsure when they will be able to sell planes to Russian airlines again.

Of the 41,170 new planes, it is said. There are 30,880 single-aisle aircraft, accounting for about 75% of the total number of aircraft; 2,120 regional aircraft; 7,230 wide-body aircraft; and 940 cargo aircraft.

Boeing slightly raised its forecast for aircraft demand over the next 10 years to 19,575 planes, even without taking into account demand in the Russian market.

Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of commercial marketing, told reporters in a news conference ahead of Sunday’s launch: “This is due to the downturn in the 2021 downturn and 2031 being the new trend year.” “It’s very close to our 2019 outlook if you include Russia.”

The CMO forecasts the market value of new aircraft deliveries to be $7.2 trillion, with the global fleet growing by 80% by 2041 compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

Additionally, Boeing Global Services forecasts demand for its segment to reach $3.6 trillion over the same period, including strong demand for repairs and modifications such as converted freighters.

“Despite the unprecedented disruption of the past two years, the aviation industry has shown incredible resilience in meeting challenges,” said Ihssane Mounir, Boeing senior vice president of commercial sales and marketing. expertise, demonstrating strong demand for new aircraft and related services for decades to come, providing a course for the industry to continue its recovery.”

The 2022 CMO includes the following regional forecasts for the next 20 years:

• The Asian market continued its strong growth momentum, accounting for approximately 40% of global long-term demand for new aircraft. Europe and North America each accounted for more than 20% of demand, with other regions accounting for 15% of deliveries.

• South Asian Airlines continued to lead the world with annual growth of 6.2%. Led by India, the region’s fleet will nearly quadruple from 700 aircraft in 2019 to more than 2,600 in 2041. Southeast Asia is expected to grow the second fastest, with its commercial fleet nearly tripling to 4,500 aircraft.

• This year’s CMO did not include a forecast for aircraft deliveries to Russia due to sanctions on aircraft exports. The change has reduced global 20-year demand by about 1,500 aircraft compared to last year’s CMO.

Single-aisle aircraft will account for 75 percent of all new deliveries, unchanged from last year’s CMO, totaling nearly 31,000 aircraft. By 2041, new wide-body aircraft will account for around 18% of deliveries, and the number of aircraft will exceed 7,200, enabling airlines to serve new and existing passenger and cargo markets more efficiently than in the past.

The CMO also forecasts continued strong demand for dedicated freighters to support global supply chains and growing express networks. Over the forecast period, operators will need to add an additional 2,800 freighters, including 940 new wide-body aircraft and retrofitted narrow- and wide-body freighters.