AI predicts crimes a week before they happen

A new algorithm based on publicly available data can predict crime in any given city with impressive accuracy, and up to a week in advance.

Predict the location of crimes before they happen

Described in the review Nature Human Behavior, the new artificial intelligence model analyzed historical crime data in Chicagoin Illinois, between 2014 and 2016. At the end of this training phase, he was able to predict with up to 90% accuracy and up to seven days in advance the location of different types of crimes in the American city, divided into districts about 300 meters in diameter. The approach was extended to seven other major cities in the country, with similar results.

So far, attempts to use theAI to predict crime have been widely controversial, due to systemic biases in law enforcement and its complex relationship to crime and society. According to the designers of the new algorithm, efforts have been made specifically to minimize them.

While previous models were mostly based on a “ seismic “, with crime hotspots spreading to surrounding areas, the scientists explained in particular that they took into account the complex social environment of cities.

” Spatial models ignore the natural topology of the city. Transportation networks consider streets, sidewalks, train and bus lines. Communication networks take into account areas of similar socio-economic origin. Our model allows us to discover these connections. »

“It’s not Minority Report”

According to Ishanu Chattopadhyay, lead author of the study, the predictions of artificial intelligence could be exploited to define strategies at a higher level, rather than simply being used for the allocation of police forces.

” Our intelligence does not identify suspects but only potential crime scenes, this is not Minority Report “, he underlines. ” The resources of law enforcement are not infinite, it is important to use them optimally. »