If you recommend a stock well, it will be finished. Tesla

After Haitong International dismantled a BYD Yuan last month and wrote an 87-page research report,“Brother of the brokerage” CITIC Securities also dismantled a Tesla Model 3 and completed a 94-page research report.

Tesla Model 3 models currently start at 279,900 yuan on China’s official website. But what CITIC Securities demolished this time was an old Model 3. Even if it is an old model, the market price of a used car is still more than 200,000 yuan. After conversion, it can be concluded that the cost of a single page of the 94-page research report obtained by dismantling exceeds 2,000 yuan.

Regarding this kind of “kill you, me and him” brokerage car dismantling behavior, Zhao Xiaoguang, vice president of Tianfeng Securities and director of the research institute, wrote slightly sarcastically in the circle of friends: “As a person who studied Apple in the past, but never dismantled Apple Analysts talk about it, when you are dismantling the iPhone 6, the market is already reflecting the logic of the iPhone 7 and the expectations of the iPhone 8.”

At the beginning of the research report titled “Seeing the Development Trend of Smart Electric Vehicles from the Dismantling of Model 3”, CITIC Securities put forward the core point of view: “We dismantled the iconic Model 3 standard battery life version, which is very important to Tesla. In-depth analysis of the E/E structure, three electrics, thermal management, body, etc. We are firmly optimistic about the development trend of smart electrification in China, and continue to recommend CATL, BYD, Desay SV and other smart electric vehicle industry chain targets. “

But the biggest problem is that the dismantled Tesla Model 3 did not use the batteries of the Ningde era.

The cylindrical ternary lithium battery used by the dismantled Tesla, not the lithium iron phosphate square battery of the Ningde era

Compared with the seriousness of car dismantling, securities companies seem to be more serious about disseminating investment strategies. On the second page of the research report, a table covering “Key Company Earnings Forecast, Valuation and Investment Rating” covering 30 A-share listed companies was pulled out.

The list is given to you, but do you really dare to buy it?

Dismantling the old Tesla, can’t see the trend

At the end of June, Haitong Securities released a research report on “BYD “Yuan” Refinement and Dismantling. In the securities business community, the first shot of dismantling electric vehicles and writing a research report was fired. Then on July 18th, CITIC Securities, known as the “Brother of Brokers”, released a research report entitled “The Development Trend of Smart Electric Vehicles from the Dismantling of Model 3”. Once again, the “car dismantling and writing a research report” was pushed to a climax.

The attitude of securities companies to dismantle cars for writing research reports is worthy of recognition, and there is also a precedent in the industry.

As early as 2017, the UBS research team dismantled Chevrolet’s Bolt electric car, Tesla’s Model 3 in 2018, and Volkswagen’s pure electric ID.3 model in 2021.

But since the car is going to be dismantled, can we dismantle the latest car, or can we dismantle it more comprehensively?

First of all, let’s take a look at BYD, which was split by Haitong Securities. It was a Yuan EV360 model, which was launched on May 27, 2018, and it has been more than 4 years since then. Looking at the platform, although the Yuan EV360 is the first mass-produced model of BYD’s pure electric e-platform, this is the first-generation 1.0 version, which is two generations behind the current BYD seal and dolphin models of the e-platform 3.0. technology.

The “antique” BYD model that was demolished, the most expensive version at that time was only 99,900 yuan, and now in the second-hand car market, it is the kind that is sold for money. Although it also uses BYD’s self-produced ternary lithium-ion battery, it is still a thousand miles away from the current hot “blade battery”.

The only point that this research report can extract is that the old models in 2018 are equipped with a large number of core components developed and produced by BYD. It is a pity that Haitong Securities did not express this point of view.

Then, let’s take a look at the Tesla split by CITIC Securities. It was a 2020 standard battery life version of the Model 3, which was launched in October 2020, and it has been almost two years since then. Compared with the “antique BYD” dismantled by Haitong, the Tesla dismantled by CITIC is not much different from the current model in terms of vehicle structure, mainly because the underlying core components are “old”.

For example, the cockpit control domain. The dismantled Tesla 2020 Model 3 uses the second-generation cockpit domain controller (MCU2), the core of which is an Intel Atom A3950 chip. But shortly after this car was delivered, all new models released in 2021 were replaced with the third-generation cockpit domain controller (MCU3), AMD CPU (zen+ architecture) and discrete graphics (RDNA2 architecture). Compared with MCU2, the performance of MCU3 has been significantly improved, and the improvement is larger than the span from the first generation to the second generation.

In addition, the most important power battery is also not the latest generation. The disassembled Tesla battery pack consists of 2976 21700 ternary lithium batteries, which were first supplied to Tesla by Panasonic and LG Chem.

It can be completely confirmed that the dismantled Tesla did not use the lithium iron phosphate square battery supplied to Tesla by CATL, let alone the latest 4680 battery produced only in the United States.

Comparison of several battery pack versions, the dismantled Tesla did not use the batteries of the Ningde era

Dismantling the car is just a gimmick, and “getting out” is the purpose

If you really want to judge the technology trend by dismantling, you should at least dismantle the technology of mass production or the latest generation of mass production.

Sandy Munro, a famous car dismantling boss, dismantled the Model Y’s heat pump air conditioning system as early as two years ago. In this system, an extremely delicately designed eight-way valve is used, and the cooling and heating circuits are integrated to realize the integration of vehicle thermal management and further ensure the cruising range in winter. All domestic Tesla models on sale are already equipped with heat pump air conditioners.

Sandy Munro

However, the old Tesla Model 3 dismantled by CITIC Securities was not equipped with this latest heat pump air conditioning system. At the same time, even if the old-generation thermal management system was dismantled, the deep core components such as the four-way valve were not dismantled.

Therefore, in the research report, only the pictures disassembled by Mr. Munro can be cited for the report and analysis.

For another example, on July 13 this year, the Munro team just released the 4680 battery pack disassembly video. It can be seen from the video screenshots that when people dismantled the car, they really opened the battery pack and analyzed the technical details.

Everyone is saying that the 4680 battery reduces the cost and increases the cruising range, but after really opening Tesla’s 4680 battery pack, we can find that the interior of this structured battery pack is filled with polyurethane materials. When a single 4680 cell needs to be repaired, these polyurethane materials need to be cleaned first. This means that if a cell is broken in the future, it is very likely that the entire battery pack will need to be replaced.

However, in the report of CITIC Securities, the above-mentioned real situation of the 4680 battery was not found. Similarly, Munro’s dismantling materials and Tesla’s official public information are cited to judge the trend of 4680 and structured battery pack technology.

Obviously, even if you don’t dismantle a Tesla, you can basically tell the trend of technology development by relying only on the materials of overseas car dismantling bloggers and the official public information. The most important role of CITIC Securities’ dismantling partner, Zhongcheng Compass Technology Development (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., is to provide 38 pictures of dismantled parts for this research report.

Of course, if the title does not have the words “disassemble Model 3”, it is very likely that no one will be willing to read this research report on the “development trend of smart electric vehicles”.

You must know that many new brokers are now entering the sell-side research industry, and more and more people are “dividing the cake”. According to Chioce data, in the first quarter of 2022, a total of 80 domestic securities firms released 41,292 research reports, involving 1,864 A-share listed companies, and an average of 459 sell-side research reports per day. For many analysts, if they want to submit a “out of the circle” research report, they have to use stunts——

“For example, show investors a hand-to-hand dismantling of a car.”

write at the end

If we talk about the seriousness of the dismantling of securities companies, Haitong International is indeed worthy of praise.

For example, in the thermal management system, Haitong not only disassembled each component, but also analyzed the name, assembly location and specific function of each component one by one.

“The so-called ‘what is learned on paper is shallow in the end’, and through dismantling, we can have a deeper understanding of the entire auto industry ecology and industry chain.” Yao Shuqiao, one of the parties involved in the dismantling of BYD, and an analyst at Haitong International, once interviewed in the media. The explanation said, “The speed of dismantling the car is still relatively fast, but the most important thing is to improve your research level in the process.”

Of course, we still need to be clear that the report of CITIC Securities was written by the institute’s research institute. Its essential purpose is not to recommend stocks, but to help institutional and retail investors understand the latest trends and changes in the new energy and smart vehicle industries.

Therefore, if you are a friend who wants to know the status quo of related industries, you can refer to such reports. After all, in order to obtain new knowledge that has been systematically summarized in the automotive industry, we, the media, have to refer to the reports of investment institutions.

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