No falling electricity prices are expected – quite the opposite. In autumn and winter, the electricity price in southern Sweden could be almost twice as high as last year, according to analysts.
– There is a high probability that there will be higher prices than last winter, and then they were already exceptionally expensive from a historical perspective, says energy consultant Christian Holtz.
Many have noticed that utility bills have eaten up a growing portion of the household coffers recently, and it will continue to do so. The forward price, i.e. the market’s assessment of the expected future electricity price, is currently pointing to an expensive winter for residents in southern Sweden.
– During the coming winter, prices will be very high in Europe, and this will spill over into the Nordic electricity market, says Johan Sigvardsson, analyst at the electricity trading company Bixia.
In southern Götaland (electricity area 4), electricity will cost SEK 3.50 per kilowatt hour (kWh) during the fall and winter, according to Sigvardsson’s forecast.
– During December to March this year, the average price was SEK 1:40. So it’s good and double that, he says.
Big differences
In electricity area 3, which includes northern Götaland and all of Svealand, the price is expected to be between SEK 2:30 and 2:50/kWh during the autumn and winter.
However, the differences are large in the country. In electricity areas 1 and 2, which includes Norrland, prices are expected to be significantly lower: around 80 öre/kWh.
– Northern Sweden always has a surplus of production compared to its consumption, they have very little consumption. Right now, the water reservoirs are even a little better filled than normal, which provides security, says Sigvardsson.
Even Christian Holtz, electricity market analyst at the energy consultancy Merlin & Metis, sees a risk of high prices in southern Sweden this winter. The reason is that high coal and gas costs drive up prices in Europe, which rubs off on southern Sweden.
Great uncertainty
In addition, there is still great uncertainty surrounding the supply of Russian gas to Europe in the Nordstream 1 pipeline. On Thursday, the gas flow resumed after a ten-day break, but only at 40 percent of normal levels.
– Should Putin choose to reduce the gas further or shut it down completely, the prices would skyrocket even more, says Christian Holtz.
But a lot can affect the price, the two analysts point out. Not least the weather and how much it blows can have a big impact.
– The prices we see now on the futures market could very well go up 50 or 100 percent more, or be halved. There is a lot of room for maneuver, says Johan Sigvardsson.
At the moment, however, it looks like consumers can count on higher electricity bills this autumn.
– No matter how you twist and turn the equation, there is very little that speaks for anything other than exceptionally high prices. The only question is: how high will they be? says Christian Holtz.
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